Loading…
Ole Miss RebelsDeuce Alexander
#1 · WR · 6' 0" · 180 lb · 11 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 8 of these 11 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Ole Miss
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line1.5×
Receiving Yards · season avg 67.9 REC YDS · DK Pick6 lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
DK Pick6 payout options — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation. Payout-wt= season over rate × the rung’s multiplier — a per-leg comparison against the standard line’s 1×. Descriptive research, not betting advice.
Verdict
vs 99.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 2/100· model 31% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)0argues against it
Projection vs line48neutral
Consistency7argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
87.7 REC YDS(×1.20 context)
L5 80.6 · L10 67.9 · med 67.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 36.0 · ceil 87.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Scored against this payout variant's ~33% breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for its payout, not a coin flip. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
10%over
1 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%Last 2011 games
9%over
1 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 2%–38%Season11 games
9%over
1 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 2%–38%Situational splits
Over 99.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home11%1/9Medium
Away0%0/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days10%1/10Medium
Next matchup — @ FLA
Sep 26, 2026
100thof 228 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
FLA allows 47.8 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 12 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Deuce Alexander has gone over 99.5 REC YDS 1 of 10 decided times (10%) — versus 9% across the full season. FLA has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 100th-most REC YDS of 228 teams (47.8 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 37.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
1 book @ 76.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Model vs market (over)-18.6%
Our model puts the over at 31.4% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (76.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 9%.