Virginia Tech Hokies

Devin Alves Receptions

Stats updated: Nov 22, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Devin Alves has gone over 1.5 REC in 1 of his last 2 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

College: Virginia Tech
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

Receptions · season avg 1.5 REC

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Verdict

vs 1.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 6/100· model 44% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral

Projection vs line44neutral

Consistency44neutral

Projection

1.5 REC

L5 1.5 · L10 1.5 · med 1.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 1.2 · ceil 1.8

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 52 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 102 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 202 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Season2 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	2/2
1.5Current	50%	1/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2

Last 2 games — REC per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%1/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days0%0/1Low

Last matchup — vs MIA

Nov 22, 2025

117thof 233 in REC allowed to wide receivers

MIA allows 3.7 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 55 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 2 games, Devin Alves has gone over 1.5 REC 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. MIA has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 117th-most REC of 233 teams (3.7 per game). His game-to-game REC have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.