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Liberty FlamesDonte Lee Jr. Receiving TDs
Stats updated: Nov 22, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
Donte Lee Jr. has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 5 of his last 8 decided games (63%), measured against our typical-game line.
- College
- Liberty
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Receiving TDs · season avg 0.6 REC TDSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDsNo readFireFactor 8/100· model 54% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)83supports it
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.7 REC TD(×1.10 context)
L5 0.4 · L10 0.6 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 108 games
63%over
5 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–86%Last 208 games
63%over
5 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–86%Season8 games
63%over
5 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–86%Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)
REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 63% | 5/8 | |
| 0% | 0/8 | ||
| 0% | 0/8 | ||
| 0% | 0/8 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away75%3/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
Last matchup — @ FIU
Nov 15, 2025
125thof 233 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers
FIU allows 0.3 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 53 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 8 games, Donte Lee Jr. has gone over 0.5 REC TD 5 of 8 decided times (63%) — versus 63% across the full season. FIU has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 125th-most REC TD of 233 teams (0.3 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 63%.
More Donte Lee Jr. research
Donte Lee Jr. — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Lee Jr. Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Lee Jr. Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
CFB Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.