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Oklahoma State CowboysDrew Mestemaker
#17 · QB · 6' 3" · 215 lb · 17 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 14 of these 17 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Oklahoma State
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 309.5 PASS YDS · our lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 294.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 5/100· model 28% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)55neutral
Projection vs line28argues against it
Consistency48neutral
Projection
366.7 PASS YDS(×1.19 context)
L5 285.2 · L10 340.1 · med 307.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 235.4 · ceil 334.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2017 games
47%over
8 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%Season17 games
47%over
8 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53% | 9/17 | ||
| 53% | 9/17 | ||
| 53% | 9/17 | ||
| 294.5Current | 47% | 8/17 | |
| 47% | 8/17 | ||
| 47% | 8/17 | ||
| 47% | 8/17 |
Situational splits
Over 294.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home56%5/9Low
Away38%3/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days44%7/16Medium
Next matchup — @ WVU
Sep 26, 2026
63rdof 226 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
WVU allows 235.7 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Drew Mestemaker has gone over 294.5 PASS YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 47% across the full season. WVU has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 63rd-most PASS YDS of 226 teams (235.7 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 97.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
1 book @ 331.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-112
-5.4% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-112
-5.4% EV
Model vs market (over)+22.5%
Our model puts the over at 72.5% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (272 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.