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Tennessee VolunteersFaizon Brandon
#11 · QB · 6' 4" · 225 lb · 3 games
Stats updated: Sep 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Tennessee
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Line1.8×
Passing Yards · season avg 184.0 PASS YDS · DK Pick6 lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
DK Pick6 payout options — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation. Payout-wt= season over rate × the rung’s multiplier — a per-leg comparison against the standard line’s 1×. Descriptive research, not betting advice.
Verdict
vs 224.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 14/100· model 13% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it
Projection vs line28argues against it
Consistency71supports it
Projection
181.5 PASS YDS(×1.00 context)
L5 184.0 · L10 184.0 · med 178.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 160.0 · ceil 206.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Scored against this payout variant's ~28% breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for its payout, not a coin flip. Small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 53 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Last 103 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Last 203 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Season3 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Situational splits
Over 224.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%1/2Low
Away0%0/1Low
Days since last game
3+ days0%0/2Low
Next matchup — vs TEX
Sep 26, 2026
160thof 226 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
TEX allows 166.0 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 3 games, Faizon Brandon has gone over 224.5 PASS YDS 1 of 3 decided times (33%) — versus 33% across the full season. TEX has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 160th-most PASS YDS of 226 teams (166.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 32.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
1 book @ 229.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
Caesars-115
-6.5% EV
Best Under
Caesars-115
-6.5% EV
Model vs market (over)-37.0%
Our model puts the over at 13.0% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (229.5 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.