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Fresno State BulldogsGavin Correia
#86 · TE · 6' 5" · 235 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Oct 31, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Fresno State
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line1.3×
Receiving Yards · season avg 12.4 REC YDS · DK Pick6 lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
DK Pick6 payout options — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation. Payout-wt= season over rate × the rung’s multiplier — a per-leg comparison against the standard line’s 1×. Descriptive research, not betting advice.
Verdict
vs 14.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 4/100· model 44% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)22argues against it
Projection vs line56neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
14.7 REC YDS(×1.01 context)
L5 14.0 · L10 12.4 · med 8.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 5.4 · ceil 14.4
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Scored against this payout variant's ~38% breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for its payout, not a coin flip. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 107 games
29%over
2 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%Last 207 games
29%over
2 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%Season7 games
29%over
2 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%Situational splits
Over 14.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away0%0/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days33%2/6Low
Next matchup — @ USU
Nov 8, 2026
192ndof 224 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
USU allows 13.8 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 13 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 7 games, Gavin Correia has gone over 14.5 REC YDS 2 of 7 decided times (29%) — versus 29% across the full season. USU has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 192nd-most REC YDS of 224 teams (13.8 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 10.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 29%.