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Oklahoma State CowboysGrayson Brousseau
#85 · TE · 6' 5" · 239 lb · 5 games
Stats updated: Nov 29, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Oklahoma State
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 9.0 REC YDSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 4.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 40% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line40argues against it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
9.3 REC YDS
L5 9.0 · L10 9.0 · med 4.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 2.4 · ceil 12.4
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 105 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 205 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Season5 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 4/5 | ||
| 80% | 4/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 4.5Current | 40% | 2/5 | |
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%2/4Low
Last matchup — vs ISU
Nov 29, 2025
102ndof 223 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
ISU allows 20.0 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 13 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 5 games, Grayson Brousseau has gone over 4.5 REC YDS 2 of 5 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. ISU has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 102nd-most REC YDS of 223 teams (20.0 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 10.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.