
Stats updated: Sep 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Isaac Matthews IV receptions hit rates and matchup research from public game logs.
No decided games at this line yet — no read.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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BUFF allows 3.0 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 13 player-games
ToughIsaac Matthews IV has no recent decided games against a 0.5 REC line. BUFF has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 156th-most REC of 228 teams (3.0 per game). His game-to-game REC have been variable (σ ≈ —), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence.
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.