Fresno State Bulldogs

Jake Tarwater Receptions

Stats updated: Nov 16, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jake Tarwater has gone over 1.5 REC in 1 of his last 4 decided games (25%), measured against our typical-game line.

College: Fresno State
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

Receptions · season avg 1.3 REC

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Verdict

vs 1.5 RECReceptions

Cold underFireFactor 61/100· model 67% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line67supports it

Consistency42neutral

Projection

1.2 REC

L5 1.3 · L10 1.3 · med 1.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 1.0 · ceil 1.4

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs under on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 54 games

25%over

1 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 5%–70%

Last 104 games

25%over

1 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 5%–70%

Last 204 games

25%over

1 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 5%–70%

Season4 games

25%over

1 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 5%–70%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	4/4
1.5Current	25%	1/4
	0%	0/4
	0%	0/4
	0%	0/4

Last 4 games — REC per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%1/3Low

Away0%0/1Low

Days since last game

3+ days33%1/3Low

Last matchup — vs WYO

Nov 16, 2025

131stof 223 in REC allowed to tight ends

WYO allows 1.8 REC per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 12 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 4 games, Jake Tarwater has gone over 1.5 REC 1 of 4 decided times (25%) — versus 25% across the full season. WYO has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 131st-most REC of 223 teams (1.8 per game). His game-to-game REC have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 0.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 25%.