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Oregon DucksJordon Davison
#0 · RB · 6' 0" · 225 lb · 11 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 8 of these 11 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Oregon
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 60.9 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 56.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 10/100· model 65% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)62supports it
Projection vs line65supports it
Consistency30argues against it
Projection
67.1 RUSH YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 65.2 · L10 61.1 · med 54.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 42.0 · ceil 90.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2011 games
55%over
6 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%Season11 games
55%over
6 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55% | 6/11 | ||
| 55% | 6/11 | ||
| 55% | 6/11 | ||
| 56.5Current | 55% | 6/11 | |
| 45% | 5/11 | ||
| 45% | 5/11 | ||
| 36% | 4/11 |
Situational splits
Over 56.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home86%6/7Low
Away0%0/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%5/10Low
Next matchup — @ USC
Sep 26, 2026
163rdof 228 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
USC allows 34.3 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jordon Davison has gone over 56.5 RUSH YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 55% across the full season. USC has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 163rd-most RUSH YDS of 228 teams (34.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 25.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
1 book @ 66.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Model vs market (over)+15.0%
Our model puts the over at 65.0% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (76.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.