UL Monroe Warhawks

Julian Nixon Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Nov 29, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Julian Nixon has gone over 4.5 FS in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

College: UL Monroe
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 4.2 FS

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Verdict

vs 4.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 6/100· model 48% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral

Projection vs line48neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

4.1 FS(×1.07 context)

L5 4.4 · L10 4.2 · med 4.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 2.1 · ceil 5.6

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Season10 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	80%	8/10
	67%	6/9
	50%	5/10
4.5Current	50%	5/10
	20%	2/10
	20%	2/10
	20%	2/10

Last 10 games — FS per game vs. line 4.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 4.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home80%4/5Low

Away20%1/5Low

Days since last game

3+ days56%5/9Low

Last matchup — @ UL

Nov 29, 2025

158thof 223 in FS allowed to tight ends

UL allows 4.1 FS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 19 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Julian Nixon has gone over 4.5 FS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. UL has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 158th-most FS of 223 teams (4.1 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.