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Vanderbilt CommodoresJunior Sherrill
#0 · WR · 5' 11" · 200 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Oct 24, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Vanderbilt
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 88.3 REC YDS · our lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 94.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 44% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line44neutral
Consistency67supports it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
89.2 REC YDS(×1.03 context)
L5 86.8 · L10 88.3 · med 94.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 73.2 · ceil 103.8
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 94.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 38% | 3/8 | ||
| 38% | 3/8 | ||
| 38% | 3/8 |
Situational splits
Over 94.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home40%2/5Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
Next matchup — @ MSST
Nov 7, 2026
99thof 236 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
MSST allows 50.3 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 26 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 8 games, Junior Sherrill has gone over 94.5 REC YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. MSST has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 99th-most REC YDS of 236 teams (50.3 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 17.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 89.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.9%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.1%
Best Over
FanDuel-114
-6.2% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-114
-6.0% EV
Model vs market (over)-5.8%
Our model puts the over at 44.2% vs the market's no-vig 49.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (89.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.