Pittsburgh Panthers

Justin Holmes Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Dec 27, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Justin Holmes has gone over 7.5 FS in 4 of his last 9 decided games (44%), measured against our typical-game line.

College: Pittsburgh
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 8.0 FS

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Verdict

vs 7.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 6/100· model 35% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it

Projection vs line35argues against it

Consistency8argues against it

Projection

10.1 FS(×1.10 context)

L5 8.3 · L10 8.0 · med 7.4

Consistency

Variable

floor 3.7 · ceil 11.5

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 109 games

44%over

4 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%

Last 209 games

44%over

4 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%

Season9 games

44%over

4 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	56%	5/9
	56%	5/9
	56%	5/9
7.5Current	44%	4/9
	44%	4/9
	44%	4/9
	25%	2/8

Last 9 games — FS per game vs. line 7.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 7.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%3/6Low

Away33%1/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days38%3/8Low

Last matchup — @ ECU

Dec 27, 2025

27thof 223 in FS allowed to tight ends

ECU allows 6.8 FS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 13 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 9 games, Justin Holmes has gone over 7.5 FS 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. ECU has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 27th-most FS of 223 teams (6.8 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 4.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.