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Virginia CavaliersKameron Courtney
#5 · WR · 5' 11" · 195 lb · 9 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 6 of these 9 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Virginia
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 31.0 REC YDS · our lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 30.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 44% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it
Projection vs line44neutral
Consistency4argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
33.8 REC YDS(×1.12 context)
L5 27.6 · L10 31.0 · med 30.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 11.6 · ceil 41.6
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 109 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Last 209 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Season9 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 30.5Current | 44% | 4/9 | |
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 44% | 4/9 | ||
| 44% | 4/9 |
Situational splits
Over 30.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home57%4/7Low
Away0%0/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%4/8Low
Next matchup — vs DEL
Sep 26, 2026
177thof 228 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
DEL allows 36.9 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 10 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 9 games, Kameron Courtney has gone over 30.5 REC YDS 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. DEL has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 177th-most REC YDS of 228 teams (36.9 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 17.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
1 book @ 31.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.4%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.6%
Best Over
FanDuel-110
-5.7% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-116
-5.7% EV
Model vs market (over)+6.2%
Our model puts the over at 55.5% vs the market's no-vig 49.4%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.