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Florida Atlantic OwlsLeonard Farrow
#5 · RB · 5' 10" · 195 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Nov 5, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Florida Atlantic
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line1.3×
Rushing Yards · season avg 64.1 RUSH YDS · DK Pick6 lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
DK Pick6 payout options — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation. Payout-wt= season over rate × the rung’s multiplier — a per-leg comparison against the standard line’s 1×. Descriptive research, not betting advice.
Verdict
vs 69.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 5/100· model 54% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)22argues against it
Projection vs line66supports it
Consistency23argues against it
Projection
78.9 RUSH YDS(×1.09 context)
L5 72.8 · L10 64.1 · med 51.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 42.2 · ceil 81.6
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Scored against this payout variant's ~38% breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for its payout, not a coin flip. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 107 games
29%over
2 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%Last 207 games
29%over
2 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%Season7 games
29%over
2 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%Situational splits
Over 69.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away0%0/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days33%2/6Low
Last matchup — vs UTSA
Nov 5, 2026
56thof 236 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
UTSA allows 57.0 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 21 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 7 games, Leonard Farrow has gone over 69.5 RUSH YDS 2 of 7 decided times (29%) — versus 29% across the full season. UTSA has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 56th-most RUSH YDS of 236 teams (57.0 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 29.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
1 book @ 58.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-112
-5.4% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-112
-5.4% EV
Model vs market (over)+4.4%
Our model puts the over at 54.4% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (56.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 29%.