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Boise State BroncosMatt Wagner
#88 · WR · 6' 5" · 243 lb · 8 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 6 of these 8 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Boise State
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 32.3 REC YDS · our lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 28.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 71% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line71supports it
Consistency26argues against it
Projection
38.1 REC YDS(×1.17 context)
L5 36.0 · L10 32.3 · med 28.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 24.0 · ceil 31.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 6/8 | ||
| 75% | 6/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 28.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 38% | 3/8 | ||
| 25% | 2/8 | ||
| 25% | 2/8 |
Situational splits
Over 28.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
Next matchup — @ WMU
Sep 26, 2026
30thof 228 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
WMU allows 63.0 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 8 games, Matt Wagner has gone over 28.5 REC YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. WMU has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 30th-most REC YDS of 228 teams (63.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 14.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
1 book @ 32.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
Caesars-115
-6.5% EV
Best Under
Caesars-115
-6.5% EV
Model vs market (over)+20.9%
Our model puts the over at 70.9% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.