South Alabama Jaguars

Micah Woods Receptions

Stats updated: Nov 22, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Micah Woods has gone over 1.5 REC in 3 of his last 7 decided games (43%), measured against our typical-game line.

Line

Receptions · season avg 1.6 REC

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

Verdict

vs 1.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 6/100· model 49% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it

Projection vs line49neutral

Consistency23argues against it

Projection

1.8 REC(×1.10 context)

L5 1.8 · L10 1.6 · med 1.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 1.0 · ceil 2.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 107 games

43%over

3 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%

Last 207 games

43%over

3 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%

Season7 games

43%over

3 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	7/7
1.5Current	43%	3/7
	14%	1/7
	0%	0/7
	0%	0/7

Last 7 games — REC per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home67%2/3Low

Away25%1/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%3/6Low

Last matchup — vs USM

Nov 22, 2025

25thof 233 in REC allowed to wide receivers

USM allows 4.3 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 41 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 7 games, Micah Woods has gone over 1.5 REC 3 of 7 decided times (43%) — versus 43% across the full season. USM has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 25th-most REC of 233 teams (4.3 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 43%.