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Tennessee VolunteersMike Matthews
#4 · WR · 6' 1" · 198 lb · 14 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 12 of these 14 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Tennessee
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 68.4 REC YDS · our lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 55.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 47% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line47neutral
Consistency20argues against it
Projection
63.0 REC YDS(×0.95 context)
L5 63.8 · L10 61.6 · med 45.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 42.2 · ceil 108.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2014 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Season14 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 8/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 55.5Current | 50% | 7/14 | |
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 43% | 6/14 |
Situational splits
Over 55.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home56%5/9Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days46%6/13Low
Next matchup — vs TEX
Sep 26, 2026
120thof 228 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
TEX allows 43.5 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Mike Matthews has gone over 55.5 REC YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 50% across the full season. TEX has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 120th-most REC YDS of 228 teams (43.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 32.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
1 book @ 52.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Model vs market (over)+2.6%
Our model puts the over at 52.6% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (61.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.