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Delaware Blue HensNick Minicucci Rushing Yards
Stats updated: Dec 18, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
Nick Minicucci has gone over 13.5 RUSH YDS in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.
- College
- Delaware
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 18.1 RUSH YDSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 13.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 52% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
14.1 RUSH YDS(×0.94 context)
L5 11.8 · L10 16.6 · med 8.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.4 · ceil 45.8
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2013 games
46%over
6 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%Season13 games
46%over
6 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 13.5Current | 46% | 6/13 | |
| 46% | 6/13 | ||
| 46% | 6/13 | ||
| 46% | 6/13 |
Situational splits
Over 13.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home71%5/7Low
Away17%1/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days42%5/12Low
Last matchup — vs UL
Dec 18, 2025
98thof 234 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks
UL allows 23.7 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 12 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Nick Minicucci has gone over 13.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 46% across the full season. UL has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 98th-most RUSH YDS of 234 teams (23.7 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 26.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 46%.
More Nick Minicucci research
Nick Minicucci — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Minicucci Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Minicucci Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Minicucci Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
CFB Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.