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BYU CougarsParker Kingston
#11 · WR · 5' 11" · 185 lb · 12 games
Stats updated: Dec 27, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- BYU
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 76.3 REC YDSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 67.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 60% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)55neutral
Projection vs line60supports it
Consistency24argues against it
Projection
80.3 REC YDS(×1.07 context)
L5 73.8 · L10 82.3 · med 80.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 43.2 · ceil 115.8
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2012 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Season12 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 67.5Current | 50% | 6/12 | |
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 |
Situational splits
Over 67.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home80%4/5Low
Away29%2/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days55%6/11Low
Last matchup — vs GT
Dec 27, 2025
37thof 233 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
GT allows 57.6 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 39 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Parker Kingston has gone over 67.5 REC YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 50% across the full season. GT has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 37th-most REC YDS of 233 teams (57.6 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 35.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.