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Penn State Nittany LionsRocco Becht
#3 · QB · 6' 1" · 208 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Oct 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Penn State
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 237.7 PASS YDS · DK Pick6 lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 229.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsHot overFireFactor 64/100· model 79% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line79supports it
Consistency61supports it
Projection
266.8 PASS YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 225.0 · L10 237.7 · med 267.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 218.2 · ceil 270.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
71%over
5 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 36%–92%Last 207 games
71%over
5 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 36%–92%Season7 games
71%over
5 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 36%–92%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 229.5Current | 71% | 5/7 | |
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 71% | 5/7 |
Situational splits
Over 229.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away100%3/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%4/6Low
Last matchup — @ MICH
Oct 17, 2026
158thof 234 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
MICH allows 181.6 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 7 games, Rocco Becht has gone over 229.5 PASS YDS 5 of 7 decided times (71%) — versus 71% across the full season. MICH has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 158th-most PASS YDS of 234 teams (181.6 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 55.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
1 book @ 229.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.9%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.1%
Best Over
Caesars-114
-6.3% EV
Best Under
Caesars-115
-6.3% EV
Model vs market (over)+28.9%
Our model puts the over at 78.8% vs the market's no-vig 49.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (229.5 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 71%.