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Clemson TigersT.J. Moore
#1 · WR · 6' 3" · 200 lb · 12 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 9 of these 12 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Clemson
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line1.6×
Receiving Yards · season avg 74.1 REC YDS · DK Pick6 lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
DK Pick6 payout options — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation. Payout-wt= season over rate × the rung’s multiplier — a per-leg comparison against the standard line’s 1×. Descriptive research, not betting advice.
Verdict
vs 79.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsHot overFireFactor 58/100· model 47% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line66supports it
Consistency31argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
72.4 REC YDS(×1.06 context)
L5 71.2 · L10 74.2 · med 75.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 40.2 · ceil 102.6
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Scored against this payout variant's ~31% breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for its payout, not a coin flip. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2012 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Season12 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Situational splits
Over 79.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days55%6/11Low
Next matchup — @ CAL
Sep 26, 2026
154thof 228 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
CAL allows 39.5 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 11 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, T.J. Moore has gone over 79.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CAL has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 154th-most REC YDS of 228 teams (39.5 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 30.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.