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LSU TigersTrey'Dez Green
#7 · TE · 6' 7" · 237 lb · 8 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 5 of these 8 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- LSU
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 74.3 REC YDS · our lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 67.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 47% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line47neutral
Consistency46neutral
Projection
71.0 REC YDS(×0.97 context)
L5 69.4 · L10 74.3 · med 67.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 55.6 · ceil 94.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 67.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 |
Situational splits
Over 67.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home40%2/5Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days43%3/7Low
Next matchup — vs TA&M
Sep 26, 2026
101stof 216 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
TA&M allows 20.0 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 8 games, Trey'Dez Green has gone over 67.5 REC YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. TA&M has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 101st-most REC YDS of 216 teams (20.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 24.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
1 book @ 61.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 51.2%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 48.8%
Best Over
Caesars-122
-6.8% EV
Best Under
Caesars-110
-6.8% EV
Model vs market (over)+1.4%
Our model puts the over at 52.6% vs the market's no-vig 51.2%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (61 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.