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Ole Miss RebelsTrinidad Chambliss
#6 · QB · 6' 0" · 205 lb · 16 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 13 of these 16 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Ole Miss
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line2×
Passing Yards · season avg 300.1 PASS YDS · DK Pick6 lineSave this DK Pick6 prop to your Playbook to track it
DK Pick6 payout options — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation. Payout-wt= season over rate × the rung’s multiplier — a per-leg comparison against the standard line’s 1×. Descriptive research, not betting advice.
Verdict
vs 349.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsWarm overFireFactor 41/100· model 63% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)53neutral
Projection vs line83supports it
Consistency70supports it
Projection
364.2 PASS YDS(×1.19 context)
L5 312.6 · L10 299.7 · med 317.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 263.0 · ceil 353.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Scored against this payout variant's ~25% breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for its payout, not a coin flip. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2016 games
25%over
4 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 10%–49%Season16 games
25%over
4 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 10%–49%Situational splits
Over 349.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home17%2/12Medium
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days20%3/15Medium
Next matchup — @ FLA
Sep 26, 2026
77thof 226 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
FLA allows 224.7 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Trinidad Chambliss has gone over 349.5 PASS YDS 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 25% across the full season. FLA has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 77th-most PASS YDS of 226 teams (224.7 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 54.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
1 book @ 292.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Model vs market (over)+12.6%
Our model puts the over at 62.6% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (292.5 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 25%.