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San Francisco GiantsCasey Schmitt
#10 · LF · 6-0 · 215 lb · 95 games
Stats updated: Jul 27, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 1.1 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListCasey Schmitt isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Knee Surgery
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
The move opens up a spot on the 26-man roster for Yunior Marte, who will start in the second game of Saturday's doubleheader against the Diamondbacks. Schmitt underwent surgery in late July to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee. He's technically eligible to return in the last days of the regular season, but he'll likely be sidelined for the rest of the year given that the Giants are unlikely to qualify for the postseason.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 56% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)97supports it
Projection vs line56neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
0.6 H(×0.85 context)
L5 0.6 · L10 0.7 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
65%over
13 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 43%–82%Season95 games
66%over
63 over · 32 under
High confidence95% CI 56%–75%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 66% | 63/95 | |
| 34% | 32/95 | ||
| 7% | 7/95 | ||
| 2% | 2/95 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home62%26/42Medium
Away70%37/53High
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)69%48/70High
1 day55%11/20Medium
2 days100%1/1Low
3+ days100%2/2Low
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Willy Adames out · Left Elbow Sprain-0.7 H when he sits
Without (5g)
0.4 H
40% over 0.5
With (90g)
1.1 H
68% over 0.5
Next matchup — vs MIN
Sep 22, 2026
8thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
MIN pitching allows 8.5 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 156 games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Casey Schmitt has gone over 0.5 H 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 66% across the full season. MIN has been a favorable matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 8th-most H of 30 teams (8.5 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Oracle Park · San Francisco Giants
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.92, HR ×0.85)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 66%.