San Francisco Giants

Casey Schmitt Strikeouts (batter)

Stats updated: Jul 27, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Casey Schmitt has gone over 0.5 SO in 7 of his last 10 decided games (70%), measured against our typical-game line.

Country: USA
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksStrikeouts (batter) · season avg 0.9 SO · our line

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Injured ListCasey Schmitt isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Left Knee Surgery
Est. return:: Feb 1, 2027

The move opens up a spot on the 26-man roster for Yunior Marte, who will start in the second game of Saturday's doubleheader against the Diamondbacks. Schmitt underwent surgery in late July to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee. He's technically eligible to return in the last days of the regular season, but he'll likely be sidelined for the rest of the year given that the Giants are unlikely to qualify for the postseason.

Verdict

vs 0.5 SOStrikeouts (batter)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 61% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it

Projection vs line61supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup75supports it

Projection

1.1 SO(×1.04 context)

L5 1.4 · L10 1.0 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

80%over

4 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%

Last 1010 games

70%over

7 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%

Last 2020 games

70%over

14 over · 6 under

Medium confidence95% CI 48%–85%

Season95 games

59%over

56 over · 39 under

High confidence95% CI 49%–68%

Alternate lines — Strikeouts (batter) (SO)

SO over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate SO line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	59%	56/95
	21%	20/95
	4%	4/95
	1%	1/95

Last 20 games — SO per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 SO by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home60%25/42Medium

Away58%31/53Medium

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)60%42/70High

1 day55%11/20Medium

2 days100%1/1Low

3+ days100%2/2Low

With a teammate out

How this SO line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Willy Adames out · Left Elbow Sprain-0.3 SO when he sits

Without (5g)

0.6 SO

40% over 0.5

With (90g)

0.9 SO

60% over 0.5

Next matchup — vs MIN

Sep 22, 2026

13thof 30 in SO allowed to hitters

MIN pitching allows 8.5 SO per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 156 games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Casey Schmitt has gone over 0.5 SO 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 59% across the full season. MIN has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 13th-most SO of 30 teams (8.5 per game). His game-to-game SO have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Home park

Oracle Park · San Francisco Giants

pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.92, HR ×0.85)

Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 59%.