Loading…
New York YankeesGiancarlo Stanton
#27 · DH · 6-5 · 245 lb · 23 games
Stats updated: Apr 24, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 17 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 1.0 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListGiancarlo Stanton isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Calf Strain
- Est. return:
- Sep 22, 2026
The veteran slugger was working his way back from a right calf strain last week when he suffered a moderate strain of his left calf, further delaying his return from the injured list. This transaction doesn't mean much given that Stanton has already been sidelined well beyond the 60-day minimum. After suffering the setback, manager Aaron Boone indicated it will be "challenging" for the 36-year-old to make it back before the end of the regular season, per Jorge Castillo of ESPN.com.
Verdict
vs 1.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 67% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)88supports it
Projection vs line67supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
0.9 H(×1.01 context)
L5 1.0 · L10 0.8 · med 0.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
30%over
6 over · 14 under
Medium confidence95% CI 15%–52%Season23 games
39%over
9 over · 14 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–59%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61% | 14/23 | ||
| 1.5Current | 39% | 9/23 | |
| 0% | 0/23 | ||
| 0% | 0/23 | ||
| 0% | 0/23 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home17%2/12Medium
Away64%7/11Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)25%4/16Medium
1 day75%3/4Low
2 days50%1/2Low
Next matchup — @ AZ
Sep 20, 2026
10thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
AZ pitching allows 8.4 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 154 games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Giancarlo Stanton has gone over 1.5 H 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 39% across the full season. AZ has been a favorable matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 10th-most H of 30 teams (8.4 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Yankee Stadium · New York Yankees
neutral (runs ×1.02, HR ×1.12)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 39%.