New York Yankees

Giancarlo Stanton Runs

Stats updated: Apr 24, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Giancarlo Stanton has gone over 0.5 R in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Country: USA
Experience: 17 seasons

Line

PrizePicksRuns · season avg 0.3 R · our line

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Injured ListGiancarlo Stanton isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Left Calf Strain
Est. return:: Sep 22, 2026

The veteran slugger was working his way back from a right calf strain last week when he suffered a moderate strain of his left calf, further delaying his return from the injured list. This transaction doesn't mean much given that Stanton has already been sidelined well beyond the 60-day minimum. After suffering the setback, manager Aaron Boone indicated it will be "challenging" for the 36-year-old to make it back before the end of the regular season, per Jorge Castillo of ESPN.com.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RRuns

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 69% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)95supports it

Projection vs line69supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup50neutral

Projection

0.3 R(×0.97 context)

L5 0.4 · L10 0.4 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2020 games

30%over

6 over · 14 under

Medium confidence95% CI 15%–52%

Season23 games

35%over

8 over · 15 under

Medium confidence95% CI 19%–55%

Alternate lines — Runs (R)

R over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate R line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	35%	8/23
	0%	0/23
	0%	0/23
	0%	0/23

Last 20 games — R per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 R by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home25%3/12Medium

Away45%5/11Low

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)25%4/16Medium

1 day50%2/4Low

2 days50%1/2Low

Next matchup — @ AZ

Sep 20, 2026

15thof 30 in R allowed to hitters

AZ pitching allows 4.5 R per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 154 games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Giancarlo Stanton has gone over 0.5 R 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 35% across the full season. AZ has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 15th-most R of 30 teams (4.5 per game). His game-to-game R have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Home park

Yankee Stadium · New York Yankees

neutral (runs ×1.02, HR ×1.12)

Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 35%.