San Francisco Giants

Harrison Bader Strikeouts (batter)

Stats updated: May 29, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Harrison Bader has gone over 1.5 SO in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Country: USA
Experience: 10 seasons

Line

PrizePicksStrikeouts (batter) · season avg 1.2 SO · our line

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Injured ListHarrison Bader isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Left Foot Plantar Fasciitis
Est. return:: Feb 1, 2027

Placed on shelf May 30 after experiencing plantar fasciitis in his left foot, Bader worsened the injury when he was involved in a scooter accident last weekend. According to Vitello, the Giants were already anticipating Bader to miss the remainder of the season before his accident, though the outfielder's recovery timeline could be extended as a result of the setback. Bader underwent a follow-up MRI on his foot earlier in the week but the Giants haven't provided any details regarding to what extent the scooter accident worsened his injury. The 32-year-old will be heading into the second season of a two-year, $20.5 million deal in 2027 after finishing his inaugural campaign in San Francisco with a .170/.198/.358 slash line to go with five home runs, 14 RBI and 10 runs over 30 games.

Verdict

vs 1.5 SOStrikeouts (batter)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 73% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line73supports it

Consistency13argues against it

Matchup50neutral

Projection

1.3 SO(×0.94 context)

L5 1.4 · L10 1.2 · med 1.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 1.0 · ceil 2.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2020 games

25%over

5 over · 15 under

Medium confidence95% CI 11%–47%

Season26 games

23%over

6 over · 20 under

Medium confidence95% CI 11%–42%

Alternate lines — Strikeouts (batter) (SO)

SO over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate SO line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	92%	24/26
1.5Current	23%	6/26
	4%	1/26
	0%	0/26
	0%	0/26

Last 20 games — SO per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 SO by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home21%3/14Medium

Away25%3/12Medium

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)24%4/17Medium

1 day0%0/4Low

2 days50%1/2Low

3+ days0%0/2Low

With a teammate out

How this SO line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Casey Schmitt out · Left Knee Surgery

Without (5g)

1.2 SO

20% over 1.5

With (21g)

1.2 SO

24% over 1.5

Next matchup — vs DET

Aug 8, 2026

18thof 30 in SO allowed to hitters

DET pitching allows 8.3 SO per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 116 games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Harrison Bader has gone over 1.5 SO 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 23% across the full season. DET has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 18th-most SO of 30 teams (8.3 per game). His game-to-game SO have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Home park

Oracle Park · San Francisco Giants

pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.92, HR ×0.85)

Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 23%.