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San Francisco GiantsJesus Rodriguez
#79 · C · 5-10 · 201 lb · 16 games
Stats updated: Jul 31, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Venezuela
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Hits · season avg 0.7 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListJesus Rodriguez isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Elbow Pinched Nerve
- Est. return:
- Aug 11, 2026
The injury may have cropped up during Friday's game against the Padres, when he entered the game in the ninth inning as a pinch hitter for Bryce Eldridge. Rodriguez will be sidelined until at least mid-August, and in a corresponding move, the Giants recalled Nate Furman from Triple-A Sacramento.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 47% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it
Projection vs line47neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
0.6 H(×0.85 context)
L5 0.6 · L10 0.5 · med 0.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2016 games
56%over
9 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 33%–77%Season16 games
56%over
9 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 33%–77%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 56% | 9/16 | |
| 13% | 2/16 | ||
| 0% | 0/16 | ||
| 0% | 0/16 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home73%8/11Low
Away20%1/5Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)75%3/4Low
1 day50%3/6Low
2 days0%0/1Low
3+ days75%3/4Low
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Matt Chapman out · Not Specified Abdomen Strain-0.1 H when he sits
Without (5g)
0.6 H
60% over 0.5
With (11g)
0.7 H
55% over 0.5
Next matchup — vs DET
Aug 7, 2026
24thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
DET pitching allows 7.7 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 114 games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jesus Rodriguez has gone over 0.5 H 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 56% across the full season. DET has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 24th-most H of 30 teams (7.7 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Oracle Park · San Francisco Giants
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.92, HR ×0.85)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Line shopping — Hits (H)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (0.5 H). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.