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San Francisco GiantsJesus Rodriguez
#79 · C · 5-10 · 201 lb · 16 games
Stats updated: Jul 31, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Venezuela
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Hits · season avg 0.7 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListJesus Rodriguez isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Elbow Pinched Nerve
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
The 24-year-old was placed on the injured list at the start of August due to right elbow neuritis, and he recently suffered a setback after starting up a minor-league rehab assignment. Rodriguez won't be eligible to be reinstated until after the end of the regular season, so his 2026 campaign can safely be considered finished since San Francisco is 25 games under. 500. He played in 22 games in his first taste of the majors this year and posted a .235/.316/.412 slash line with two homers and one steal in 58 plate appearances.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 51% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it
Projection vs line51neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
0.6 H(×0.95 context)
L5 0.6 · L10 0.5 · med 0.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2016 games
56%over
9 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 33%–77%Season16 games
56%over
9 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 33%–77%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 56% | 9/16 | |
| 13% | 2/16 | ||
| 0% | 0/16 | ||
| 0% | 0/16 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home73%8/11Low
Away20%1/5Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)75%3/4Low
1 day50%3/6Low
2 days0%0/1Low
3+ days75%3/4Low
Next matchup — vs MIN
Sep 21, 2026
8thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
MIN pitching allows 8.5 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 155 games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jesus Rodriguez has gone over 0.5 H 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 56% across the full season. MIN has been a favorable matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 8th-most H of 30 teams (8.5 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Oracle Park · San Francisco Giants
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.92, HR ×0.85)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.