Loading…
San Francisco GiantsJesus Rodriguez Hitter Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Jul 31, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Jesus Rodriguez has gone over 4.5 FS in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Country
- Venezuela
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Hitter Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 4.9 FS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListJesus Rodriguez isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Elbow Pinched Nerve
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
The 24-year-old was placed on the injured list at the start of August due to right elbow neuritis, and he recently suffered a setback after starting up a minor-league rehab assignment. Rodriguez won't be eligible to be reinstated until after the end of the regular season, so his 2026 campaign can safely be considered finished since San Francisco is 25 games under. 500. He played in 22 games in his first taste of the majors this year and posted a .235/.316/.412 slash line with two homers and one steal in 58 plate appearances.
Verdict
vs 4.5 FSHitter Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 48% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it
Projection vs line48neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
4.0 FS(×0.82 context)
L5 4.6 · L10 3.5 · med 2.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 7.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2016 games
56%over
9 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 33%–77%Season16 games
56%over
9 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 33%–77%Alternate lines — Hitter Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69% | 11/16 | ||
| 63% | 10/16 | ||
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 4.5Current | 56% | 9/16 | |
| 44% | 7/16 | ||
| 38% | 6/16 | ||
| 19% | 3/16 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home64%7/11Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%4/4Low
1 day33%2/6Low
2 days0%0/1Low
3+ days75%3/4Low
Next matchup — @ LAD
Sep 19, 2026
29thof 30 in FS allowed to hitters
LAD pitching allows 57.7 FS per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 154 games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jesus Rodriguez has gone over 4.5 FS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 56% across the full season. LAD has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 29th-most FS of 30 teams (57.7 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 4.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Oracle Park · San Francisco Giants
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.92, HR ×0.85)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.
More Jesus Rodriguez research
Jesus Rodriguez — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Rodriguez Total Bases→
Total Bases hit rates and trends.
Rodriguez Home Runs→
Home Runs hit rates and trends.
Rodriguez RBIs→
RBIs hit rates and trends.
Rodriguez Runs→
Runs hit rates and trends.
Pitching Allowed by team→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
MLB Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.