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New York MetsJuan Soto
#22 · LF · 6-1 · 224 lb · 81 games
Stats updated: Jul 24, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Dominican Republic
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 1.0 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListJuan Soto isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Calf Strain
- Est. return:
- Aug 21, 2026
Soto made an early exit from Friday's contest against the Dodgers due to a sore left calf, marking the second time he's been forced out of a game because of his calf since the All-Star break. MRI results confirmed Saturday that the 27-year-old has suffered a strain, and although the Mets haven't provided details regarding the severity of the strain, it will still force him to remain on the shelf until at least Aug. 4. Jorge Polanco figures to see consistent starts as New York's designated hitter while Soto is out, and Eric Wagaman will come up from Triple-A Syracuse to replenish the team's bench depth.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 69% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line69supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
0.7 H(×1.07 context)
L5 0.6 · L10 0.5 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
60%over
12 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–78%Season81 games
69%over
56 over · 25 under
High confidence95% CI 58%–78%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 69% | 56/81 | |
| 30% | 24/81 | ||
| 2% | 2/81 | ||
| 0% | 0/81 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home79%30/38Medium
Away60%26/43Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)66%42/64High
1 day82%9/11Medium
2 days100%1/1Low
3+ days100%3/3Low
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Mark Vientos out · Right Hand Fracture
Without (26g)
1.0 H
62% over 0.5
With (55g)
1.0 H
73% over 0.5
Next matchup — @ PIT
Aug 8, 2026
15thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
PIT pitching allows 8.2 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 118 games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Juan Soto has gone over 0.5 H 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 69% across the full season. PIT has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 15th-most H of 30 teams (8.2 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Citi Field · New York Mets
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.96, HR ×0.95)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 69%.