New York Mets

Juan Soto Stolen Bases

Stats updated: Jul 24, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Juan Soto has gone over 0.5 SB in 0 of his last 10 decided games (0%), measured against our typical-game line.

Country: Dominican Republic
Experience: 9 seasons

Line

PrizePicksStolen Bases · season avg 0.1 SB · our line

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Injured ListJuan Soto isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Left Calf Strain
Est. return:: Aug 21, 2026

Soto made an early exit from Friday's contest against the Dodgers due to a sore left calf, marking the second time he's been forced out of a game because of his calf since the All-Star break. MRI results confirmed Saturday that the 27-year-old has suffered a strain, and although the Mets haven't provided details regarding the severity of the strain, it will still force him to remain on the shelf until at least Aug. 4. Jorge Polanco figures to see consistent starts as New York's designated hitter while Soto is out, and Eric Wagaman will come up from Triple-A Syracuse to replenish the team's bench depth.

Verdict

vs 0.5 SBStolen Bases

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 93% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line93supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup25argues against it

Projection

0.0 SB(×0.99 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.0 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 1010 games

0%over

0 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–28%

Last 2020 games

5%over

1 over · 19 under

High confidence95% CI 1%–24%

Season81 games

7%over

6 over · 75 under

High confidence95% CI 3%–15%

Alternate lines — Stolen Bases (SB)

SB over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate SB line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	7%	6/81
	1%	1/81
	0%	0/81
	0%	0/81

Last 20 games — SB per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 SB by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home5%2/38High

Away9%4/43High

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)9%6/64High

1 day0%0/11Medium

2 days0%0/1Low

3+ days0%0/3Low

With a teammate out

How this SB line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Mark Vientos out · Right Hand Fracture

Without (26g)

0.1 SB

8% over 0.5

With (55g)

0.1 SB

7% over 0.5

Next matchup — @ CLE

Aug 4, 2026

13thof 30 in SB allowed to hitters

CLE pitching allows 0.7 SB per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 113 games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Juan Soto has gone over 0.5 SB 0 of 10 decided times (0%) — versus 7% across the full season. CLE has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 13th-most SB of 30 teams (0.7 per game). His game-to-game SB have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Home park

Citi Field · New York Mets

pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.96, HR ×0.95)

Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 7%.