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Cleveland GuardiansKahlil Watson
#31 · RF · 5-9 · 178 lb · 26 games
Stats updated: Jul 21, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Hits · season avg 0.8 HSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutKahlil Watson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Abdomen Surgery
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
It's not clear how long Watson had been dealing with a sports hernia, but the decision to have surgery was made after he visited with Dr. William Meyers in Philadelphia. Watson should be fully recovered well ahead of spring training. The 23-year-old slashed just .239/.264/.341 with a 3:32 BB:K over his first 27 contests in the majors, but he turned in a .247/.361/.455 batting line with 19 home runs and 24 steals in 98 games with Triple-A Columbus. Watson will compete next year for playing time in the Guardians' outfield.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.8 H(×0.92 context)
L5 1.2 · L10 0.7 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
100%over
5 over · 0 under
Medium confidence95% CI 57%–100%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
65%over
13 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 43%–82%Season26 games
58%over
15 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–74%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 58% | 15/26 | |
| 19% | 5/26 | ||
| 0% | 0/26 | ||
| 0% | 0/26 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home79%11/14Medium
Away33%4/12Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)53%10/19Medium
1 day75%3/4Low
3+ days100%1/1Low
Last matchup — vs MIN
Jul 21, 2026
10thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
MIN pitching allows 8.5 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 162 games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Kahlil Watson has gone over 0.5 H 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 58% across the full season. MIN has been a favorable matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 10th-most H of 30 teams (8.5 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Progressive Field · Cleveland Guardians
neutral (runs ×0.98, HR ×0.97)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 58%.