Cleveland Guardians

Kahlil Watson Runs

Stats updated: Jul 21, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Kahlil Watson has gone over 0.5 R in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Country: USA
Experience: Rookie

Line

PrizePicksRuns · season avg 0.2 R · our line

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Verdict

vs 0.5 RRuns

Cold underFireFactor 54/100· model 79% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line79supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup25argues against it

Projection

0.3 R(×0.83 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.3 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2020 games

25%over

5 over · 15 under

Medium confidence95% CI 11%–47%

Season26 games

23%over

6 over · 20 under

Medium confidence95% CI 11%–42%

Alternate lines — Runs (R)

R over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate R line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	23%	6/26
	0%	0/26
	0%	0/26
	0%	0/26

Last 20 games — R per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 R by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home21%3/14Medium

Away25%3/12Medium

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)21%4/19Medium

1 day50%2/4Low

3+ days0%0/1Low

Next matchup — vs NYM

Aug 6, 2026

12thof 30 in R allowed to hitters

NYM pitching allows 4.5 R per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 115 games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Kahlil Watson has gone over 0.5 R 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 23% across the full season. NYM has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 12th-most R of 30 teams (4.5 per game). His game-to-game R have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Home park

Progressive Field · Cleveland Guardians

neutral (runs ×0.98, HR ×0.97)

Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 23%.