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Detroit TigersParker Meadows
#22 · CF · 6-5 · 205 lb · 12 games
Stats updated: Apr 9, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 0.8 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListParker Meadows isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Arm Surgery
- Est. return:
- Aug 20, 2026
Meadows has been on the shelf since undergoing surgery April 13 to repair a radial fracture in his left forearm, which he sustained in a collision in the outfield. The 26-year-old appears to have made a full recovery from the concussion and mouth laceration that he also suffered in the collision, but due to the complex nature of his surgery, he remains limited to doing daily rehab while he waits for the fracture to heal. While Hinch indicated that Meadows hasn't hit any setbacks in the recovery process, a target date for the outfielder's return is unlikely to come into focus until he's able to take part in a full range of baseball activities.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 52% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)75supports it
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
0.7 H(×0.95 context)
L5 0.8 · L10 0.8 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2012 games
58%over
7 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 32%–81%Season12 games
58%over
7 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 32%–81%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 58% | 7/12 | |
| 17% | 2/12 | ||
| 0% | 0/12 | ||
| 0% | 0/12 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away56%5/9Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)56%5/9Low
1 day0%0/1Low
2 days100%1/1Low
Next matchup — @ SF
Aug 7, 2026
11thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
SF pitching allows 8.3 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 115 games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Parker Meadows has gone over 0.5 H 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 58% across the full season. SF has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 11th-most H of 30 teams (8.3 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Comerica Park · Detroit Tigers
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.96, HR ×0.91)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 58%.