Detroit Tigers

Parker Meadows Total Bases

Stats updated: Apr 9, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Parker Meadows has gone over 0.5 TB in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Country: USA
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTotal Bases · season avg 1.0 TB · our line

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Injured ListParker Meadows isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Left Arm Surgery
Est. return:: Aug 20, 2026

Meadows has been on the shelf since undergoing surgery April 13 to repair a radial fracture in his left forearm, which he sustained in a collision in the outfield. The 26-year-old appears to have made a full recovery from the concussion and mouth laceration that he also suffered in the collision, but due to the complex nature of his surgery, he remains limited to doing daily rehab while he waits for the fracture to heal. While Hinch indicated that Meadows hasn't hit any setbacks in the recovery process, a target date for the outfielder's return is unlikely to come into focus until he's able to take part in a full range of baseball activities.

Verdict

vs 0.5 TBTotal Bases

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 52% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)75supports it

Projection vs line52neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup50neutral

Projection

0.8 TB(×0.97 context)

L5 0.8 · L10 1.1 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.8

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Last 2012 games

58%over

7 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 32%–81%

Season12 games

58%over

7 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 32%–81%

Alternate lines — Total Bases (TB)

TB over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TB line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	58%	7/12
	25%	3/12
	8%	1/12
	8%	1/12

Last 12 games — TB per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 TB by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home67%2/3Low

Away56%5/9Low

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)56%5/9Low

1 day0%0/1Low

2 days100%1/1Low

Next matchup — @ SEA

Aug 5, 2026

19thof 30 in TB allowed to hitters

SEA pitching allows 13.0 TB per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 113 games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Parker Meadows has gone over 0.5 TB 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 58% across the full season. SEA has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 19th-most TB of 30 teams (13.0 per game). His game-to-game TB have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Home park

Comerica Park · Detroit Tigers

pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.96, HR ×0.91)

Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 58%.