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Los Angeles DodgersShohei Ohtani
#17 · TWP · 6-4 · 210 lb · 129 games
Stats updated: Sep 7, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Japan
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 1.1 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListShohei Ohtani isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Biceps Inflammation
- Est. return:
- Sep 23, 2026
Ohtani ran the bases on the field prior to Saturday's game and also advanced to taking simulated at-bats against the team's Trajekt machine. It sounds like the Dodgers are pleased with Ohtani's progress, enough so that he's penciled in to return during the homestand. If Ohtani is activated Wednesday when first eligible, he could play in up to five game before the end of the regular season.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 64% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line64supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
0.6 H(×0.98 context)
L5 0.4 · L10 0.5 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
55%over
11 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–74%Season129 games
68%over
88 over · 41 under
High confidence95% CI 60%–76%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 68% | 88/129 | |
| 31% | 40/129 | ||
| 8% | 10/129 | ||
| 1% | 1/129 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%41/61High
Away69%47/68High
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)65%64/99High
1 day83%19/23Medium
2 days100%2/2Low
3+ days33%1/3Low
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Dalton Rushing out · Right Elbow Soreness-0.2 H when he sits
Without (64g)
1.0 H
61% over 0.5
With (65g)
1.2 H
75% over 0.5
Next matchup — vs SD
Sep 22, 2026
19thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
SD pitching allows 8.0 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 156 games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Shohei Ohtani has gone over 0.5 H 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 68% across the full season. SD has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 19th-most H of 30 teams (8.0 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles Dodgers
neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.08)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 68%.