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AthleticsZachary Gelof
#20 · 3B · 6-2 · 205 lb · 56 games
Stats updated: Jul 9, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Hits · season avg 1.1 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 HHitsCold underFireFactor 54/100· model 69% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line69supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
1.1 H(×1.20 context)
L5 1.0 · L10 1.1 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
20%over
2 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%Last 2020 games
25%over
5 over · 15 under
Medium confidence95% CI 11%–47%Season56 games
25%over
14 over · 42 under
High confidence95% CI 16%–38%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 45/56 | ||
| 1.5Current | 25% | 14/56 | |
| 2% | 1/56 | ||
| 0% | 0/56 | ||
| 0% | 0/56 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home35%11/31Medium
Away12%3/25Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)23%10/44High
1 day29%2/7Low
2 days67%2/3Low
3+ days0%0/1Low
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Shea Langeliers out · Right Knee Surgery+0.3 H when he sits
Without (9g)
1.3 H
33% over 1.5
With (47g)
1.0 H
23% over 1.5
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer out · Not Specified Groin Surgery+0.3 H when he sits
Without (52g)
1.1 H
27% over 1.5
With (4g)
0.8 H
0% over 1.5
Next matchup — @ CIN
Aug 5, 2026
11thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
CIN pitching allows 8.3 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 111 games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Zachary Gelof has gone over 1.5 H 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 25% across the full season. CIN has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 11th-most H of 30 teams (8.3 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Sutter Health Park · Athletics
neutral (runs ×1.02, HR ×1.03)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 25%.