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AthleticsZachary Gelof Total Bases
Stats updated: Jul 9, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Zachary Gelof has gone over 1.5 TB in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Total Bases · season avg 1.9 TB · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 TBTotal BasesNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 55% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)65supports it
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
1.5 TB(×1.06 context)
L5 1.4 · L10 1.9 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season56 games
45%over
25 over · 31 under
Medium confidence95% CI 32%–58%Alternate lines — Total Bases (TB)
TB over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 45/56 | ||
| 1.5Current | 45% | 25/56 | |
| 25% | 14/56 | ||
| 20% | 11/56 | ||
| 13% | 7/56 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 TB by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home58%18/31Medium
Away28%7/25Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)41%18/44Medium
1 day29%2/7Low
2 days100%3/3Low
3+ days100%1/1Low
With a teammate out
How this TB line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Shea Langeliers out · Right Knee Surgery+0.3 TB when he sits
Without (9g)
2.1 TB
67% over 1.5
With (47g)
1.9 TB
40% over 1.5
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer out · Not Specified Groin Surgery+1.0 TB when he sits
Without (52g)
2.0 TB
46% over 1.5
With (4g)
1.0 TB
25% over 1.5
Next matchup — @ CIN
Aug 6, 2026
11thof 30 in TB allowed to hitters
CIN pitching allows 13.8 TB per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 113 games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Zachary Gelof has gone over 1.5 TB 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 45% across the full season. CIN has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 11th-most TB of 30 teams (13.8 per game). His game-to-game TB have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Sutter Health Park · Athletics
neutral (runs ×1.02, HR ×1.03)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 45%.
More Zachary Gelof research
Zachary Gelof — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Gelof Home Runs→
Home Runs hit rates and trends.
Gelof RBIs→
RBIs hit rates and trends.
Gelof Runs→
Runs hit rates and trends.
Gelof Stolen Bases→
Stolen Bases hit rates and trends.
Pitching Allowed by team→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
MLB Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.