Loading…
Minnesota UnitedTomás Chancalay
#8 · F · 5' 10" · 168 lb · 26 games
Stats updated: Sep 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Shots · season avg 2.1 SH · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 2.5 SHShotsCool underFireFactor 27/100· model 66% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)91supports it
Projection vs line66supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
1.6 SH(×1.05 context)
L5 1.0 · L10 1.7 · med 1.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
0%over
0 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%Last 1010 games
20%over
2 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%Last 2020 games
35%over
7 over · 13 under
Medium confidence95% CI 18%–57%Season26 games
38%over
10 over · 16 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–57%Alternate lines — Shots (SH)
SH over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88% | 23/26 | ||
| 62% | 16/26 | ||
| 2.5Current | 38% | 10/26 | |
| 19% | 5/26 | ||
| 0% | 0/26 | ||
| 0% | 0/26 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 SH by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home23%3/13Medium
Away54%7/13Low
Days since last game
1 day33%1/3Low
2 days0%0/2Low
3+ days40%8/20Medium
Next matchup — @ SEA
Sep 27, 2026
8thof 32 in SH allowed to forwards
SEA allows 1.7 SH per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 96 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Tomás Chancalay has gone over 2.5 SH 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 38% across the full season. SEA has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 8th-most SH of 32 teams (1.7 per game). His game-to-game SH have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.