NBA FireFactor Accuracy

Sport

The settled ledger: for each of the last 10 completed slate days, the strongest pre-game FireFactor leans — recomputed from only the game logs available before that slate — checked against what actually happened. Every row links to the player’s full read.

Side

Showing all leans — 123 of 232 landed (53%).

Nov 5, 2026

9 of 12 landed

✓Davion MitchellO 27.5 FSgot 34.4
✓Tim Hardaway Jr.U 4.5 3PMgot 0
✓Miles BridgesO 25.5 PRAgot 36
✗Bam AdebayoU 9.5 REBgot 10
✗Brandin PodziemskiO 16.5 PTSgot 9
✓Wendell Carter Jr.O 8.5 REBgot 13
✓Collin GillespieU 3.5 REBgot 2
✗Desmond BaneO 3.5 3PMgot 3
✓Will RichardO 5.5 PTSgot 10
✓Tristan da SilvaO 11.5 PTSgot 18
✓Luke KennardU 2.5 REBgot 1
✓Gary Payton IIU 2.5 REBgot 0

Nov 4, 2026

29 of 60 landed

✓Jaime Jaquez Jr.O 13.5 PTSgot 18
✗Matas BuzelisO 12.5 PTSgot 12
✗Derrick WhiteU 17.5 PTSgot 24
✗Quentin GrimesO 7.5 PTSgot 6
✓Dennis SchröderO 3.5 ASTgot 4
✓Julius RandleO 19.5 PTSgot 22
✗Moussa DiabatéO 8.5 PTSgot 7
✗Jeremiah FearsO 3.5 ASTgot 2
✓Jaden McDanielsO 2.5 ASTgot 4
✗AJ GreenO 6.5 PTSgot 5
✗Scottie BarnesO 22.5 PTSgot 17
✗Brice SensabaughO 7.5 PTSgot 6
✗Amen ThompsonO 15.5 PTSgot 11
✗Kel'el WareO 9.5 PTSgot 2
✗Precious AchiuwaO 6.5 REBgot 3
✓Naz ReidO 7.5 REBgot 9
✓Ryan RollinsO 3.5 ASTgot 5
✗Ja'Kobe WalterO 3.5 REBgot 1
✓Miles BridgesO 15.5 PTSgot 18
✓Ausar ThompsonO 10.5 PTSgot 11
✓Payton PritchardU 3.5 REBgot 1
✗Dyson DanielsU 5.5 ASTgot 8
✓Keldon JohnsonO 4.5 REBgot 5
✗Davion MitchellO 11.5 PTSgot 11
✗Sion JamesU 10.5 PRAgot 13
✓Kevin DurantU 22.5 PTSgot 21
✓Derik QueenO 6.5 REBgot 9
✓Jamal MurrayO 5.5 ASTgot 7
✓Javonte GreenU 1.5 3PMgot 0
✓Tim Hardaway Jr.U 1.5 ASTgot 0
✓Onyeka OkongwuO 8.5 REBgot 16
✓Jalen BrunsonU 6.5 ASTgot 4
✓Duncan RobinsonO 14.5 PTSgot 27
✗Karl-Anthony TownsO 20.5 PTSgot 17
✓Rudy GobertO 10.5 REBgot 11
✓Jamal SheadO 4.5 ASTgot 6
✓Nickeil Alexander-WalkerU 3.5 ASTgot 2
✗Gradey DickO 3.5 REBgot 2
✗Jake LaRaviaO 19.5 FSgot 19.4
✗Mikal BridgesU 2.5 ASTgot 4
✗Ronald Holland IIO 16.5 PRAgot 5
✗Neemias QuetaO 10.5 PTSgot 9
✓Daniss JenkinsO 3.5 ASTgot 4
✗Julian ChampagnieO 19.5 FSgot 12.3
✗Bones HylandU 3.5 ASTgot 4
✗Hugo GonzálezO 3.5 REBgot 2
✗Brook LopezU 1.5 3PMgot 2
✗Jarace WalkerO 1.5 3PMgot 0
✓VJ EdgecombeO 10.5 PTSgot 11
✗Kris DunnU 4.5 REBgot 5
✓Luke KennardU 2.5 REBgot 0
✓LaMelo BallU 6.5 ASTgot 6
✗Baylor ScheiermanU 4.5 REBgot 11
✓Jay HuffO 1.5 3PMgot 2
✗Sandro MamukelashviliO 12.5 PTSgot 2
✓Royce O'NealeU 4.5 REBgot 3
✗Jabari Smith Jr.O 28.5 FSgot 26.8
✗Harrison BarnesO 16.5 FSgot 6.4
✓Sam HauserU 3.5 REBgot 2
✓Will RileyU 22.5 PRAgot 0

Nov 2, 2026

31 of 58 landed

✗Quentin GrimesO 7.5 PTSgot 7
✓Jamal SheadO 4.5 ASTgot 6
✗Ronald Holland IIO 2.5 REBgot 2
✗Moussa DiabatéO 7.5 PTSgot 7
✗Dennis SchröderO 4.5 ASTgot 1
✗Jeremiah FearsO 15.5 PTSgot 12
✗Matas BuzelisO 14.5 PTSgot 4
✗Rudy GobertO 10.5 REBgot 10
✗Amen ThompsonO 15.5 PTSgot 14
✗Kel'el WareO 9.5 PTSgot 2
✓Jaime Jaquez Jr.O 13.5 PTSgot 19
✗Brice SensabaughO 9.5 PTSgot 7
✗Naz ReidO 7.5 REBgot 6
✓Karl-Anthony TownsO 11.5 REBgot 16
✗Brandin PodziemskiO 4.5 ASTgot 2
✓Kevin DurantU 2.5 3PMgot 0
✗Duncan RobinsonU 2.5 ASTgot 3
✗Daniss JenkinsO 9.5 PTSgot 2
✗VJ EdgecombeO 6.5 REBgot 3
✓Jaden McDanielsO 5.5 REBgot 6
✗Sion JamesU 10.5 PRAgot 18
✗Jalen BrunsonO 22.5 PTSgot 19
✓Davion MitchellO 12.5 PTSgot 15
✓Neemias QuetaO 8.5 PTSgot 16
✗Jarace WalkerU 6.5 REBgot 7
✓Derik QueenO 6.5 REBgot 7
✗Nickeil Alexander-WalkerU 3.5 REBgot 4
✓Bub CarringtonO 11.5 FSgot 15.8
✓Wendell Carter Jr.U 1.5 ASTgot 0
✓Julian ChampagnieU 1.5 ASTgot 0
✓Mikal BridgesU 2.5 ASTgot 0
✗Kris DunnO 4.5 ASTgot 1
✓Javonte GreenU 1.5 3PMgot 1
✗Jabari Smith Jr.O 14.5 PTSgot 14
✗Jay HuffU 5.5 REBgot 8
✓Dyson DanielsU 4.5 ASTgot 4
✓Tristan da SilvaU 4.5 REBgot 4
✓Onyeka OkongwuU 13.5 PTSgot 13
✓Tim Hardaway Jr.U 1.5 ASTgot 0
✓DeMar DeRozanU 2.5 REBgot 0
✓Bones HylandU 3.5 ASTgot 3
✗Baylor ScheiermanU 1.5 3PMgot 3
✓AJ GreenO 1.5 ASTgot 3
✗Bam AdebayoU 8.5 REBgot 9
✓Saddiq BeyO 3.5 REBgot 5
✗Desmond BaneO 33.5 FSgot 27.1
✓Brook LopezU 1.5 3PMgot 1
✓Ryan RollinsU 26.5 FSgot 16.6
✓Keldon JohnsonO 4.5 REBgot 7
✓Luke KennardU 2.5 REBgot 2
✓Gradey DickU 4.5 REBgot 4
✓Royce O'NealeU 4.5 REBgot 4
✓Jamal MurrayO 5.5 ASTgot 6
✓Jake LaRaviaU 20.5 FSgot 19.8
✓Sam HauserU 3.5 REBgot 2
✓Will RileyU 22.5 PRAgot 1
✗CJ McCollumU 21.5 PRAgot 34
✗Nique CliffordO 2.5 ASTgot 0

Nov 1, 2026

4 of 11 landed

✗Jarace WalkerO 22.5 FSgot 19.7
✓Scottie BarnesU 5.5 ASTgot 5
✗Kris DunnO 4.5 ASTgot 4
✗Tristan da SilvaU 4.5 3PMgot 5
✗Jay HuffO 14 PRAgot 3
✗Brook LopezO 9.5 PTSgot 7
✗Jamal SheadU 6.5 PTSgot 9
✗Baylor ScheiermanU 1.5 3PMgot 2
✓Wendell Carter Jr.O 8.5 REBgot 10
✓Gradey DickU 4.5 REBgot 1
✓Quentin GrimesU 12.5 PTSgot 7

Oct 31, 2026

9 of 22 landed

✗Jaden McDanielsO 5.5 REBgot 3
✓Jeremiah FearsO 30.5 FSgot 36.5
✗AJ GreenO 6.5 PTSgot 0
✓Kevin DurantU 2.5 3PMgot 0
✓Kel'el WareO 9.5 PTSgot 19
✗Nickeil Alexander-WalkerO 26.5 PRAgot 15
✓Ryan RollinsU 2.5 3PMgot 1
✓Sion JamesU 10.5 PRAgot 7
✗CJ McCollumO 25.5 FSgot 19.4
✓Onyeka OkongwuU 22.5 PRAgot 17
✗Jabari Smith Jr.U 5.5 REBgot 9
✗Royce O'NealeU 4.5 REBgot 6
✗VJ EdgecombeU 1.5 3PMgot 2
✗Saddiq BeyU 4 REBgot 6
✓Bones HylandO 2.5 ASTgot 3
✗Amen ThompsonO 16.5 PTSgot 8
✗Julian ChampagnieU 11.5 PTSgot 12
✗Precious AchiuwaO 21.5 PRAgot 12
✓Naz ReidU 33.5 FSgot 22
✓Dyson DanielsU 22.5 PRAgot 15
✗Dennis SchröderU 5.5 ASTgot 7
✗Nique CliffordO 2.5 ASTgot 2

Oct 30, 2026

20 of 24 landed

✗Matas BuzelisO 25.5 FSgot 19.5
✗Sion JamesU 17 FSgot 23
✓Jay HuffU 19.5 PTSgot 13
✓Jarace WalkerU 11.5 REBgot 6
✓Jaden McDanielsU 9.5 REBgot 6
✓Jamal MurrayU 11.5 ASTgot 5
✓DeMar DeRozanU 5.5 REBgot 1
✓Tim Hardaway Jr.U 19.5 PTSgot 2
✓Scottie BarnesU 5.5 ASTgot 5
✓Neemias QuetaO 16.5 PRAgot 19
✓Davion MitchellU 11.5 ASTgot 11
✗Bub CarringtonU 2.5 REBgot 4
✓Duncan RobinsonO 23 FSgot 33.8
✓Karl-Anthony TownsO 35.5 PRAgot 37
✓Jalen BrunsonO 19.5 PTSgot 24
✗Naz ReidO 16.5 PTSgot 12
✓Quentin GrimesU 19.5 PTSgot 3
✓Sam HauserO 2.5 REBgot 3
✓Clint CapelaU 14.5 PTSgot 5
✓Royce O'NealeU 4.5 REBgot 3
✓Jamal SheadU 7.5 PTSgot 2
✓Luke KennardU 2.5 REBgot 1
✓Will RileyU 3.5 ASTgot 0
✓Bones HylandO 2.5 ASTgot 8

Oct 29, 2026

4 of 6 landed

✓Jeremiah FearsO 15.5 PTSgot 22
✓Precious AchiuwaO 10.5 PTSgot 24
✗Nickeil Alexander-WalkerO 2.5 ASTgot 1
✓CJ McCollumO 2.5 ASTgot 8
✓Sidy CissokoO 11.5 FSgot 16.2
✗Nique CliffordO 2.5 ASTgot 1

Oct 28, 2026

6 of 19 landed

✓Sion JamesU 16.5 FSgot 14.9
✓Jeremiah FearsO 2.5 ASTgot 3
✗Jarace WalkerO 17.5 PRAgot 16
✗Jake LaRaviaU 4.5 REBgot 10
✓Tim Hardaway Jr.U 14.5 PTSgot 14
✓Matas BuzelisO 13.5 PTSgot 17
✗Jalen BrunsonU 26.5 PTSgot 38
✗Brandin PodziemskiO 15.5 PTSgot 8
✗Quentin GrimesU 12.5 PTSgot 23
✗Bub CarringtonO 1.5 3PMgot 0
✗Reed SheppardO 12.5 PTSgot 7
✗Julian ChampagnieU 4.5 REBgot 6
✗Jay HuffO 10.5 PTSgot 3
✗Royce O'NealeO 1.5 ASTgot 0
✗Kel'el WareO 10.5 PTSgot 6
✗Clint CapelaU 6.5 PTSgot 10
✓CJ McCollumU 17.5 PTSgot 13
✓AJ GreenO 1.5 ASTgot 2
✗Nickeil Alexander-WalkerO 3.5 ASTgot 1

Oct 27, 2026

4 of 6 landed

✗Quentin GrimesO 8.5 PTSgot 2
✗Neemias QuetaO 16.5 PRAgot 12
✓Sam HauserO 1.5 3PMgot 3
✓Julian ChampagnieU 4.5 REBgot 3
✓Sandro MamukelashviliO 7.5 PTSgot 17
✓Baylor ScheiermanU 4.5 REBgot 4

Oct 26, 2026

7 of 14 landed

✓Reed SheppardO 8.5 PTSgot 13
✗Matas BuzelisO 12.5 PTSgot 11
✗Neemias QuetaO 18.5 PRAgot 13
✗Jay HuffO 10.5 PTSgot 6
✓Sam HauserO 2.5 REBgot 4
✓CJ McCollumO 2.5 ASTgot 3
✗Royce O'NealeO 1.5 ASTgot 1
✗Tim Hardaway Jr.O 2.5 REBgot 2
✓Kel'el WareO 10.5 PTSgot 16
✗AJ GreenO 24.5 PRAgot 10
✓Jarace WalkerO 1.5 3PMgot 2
✓Luke KennardU 2.5 REBgot 1
✓Will RileyU 3.5 ASTgot 0
✗Clint CapelaO 8.5 REBgot 2

How to read this honestly: rows are recomputed after the fact from the same public game logs the live board uses, settled at the line a book actually posted for that slate where we still have it (hover a line to see which) and at our own book-style half-point line otherwise. They omit the matchup / Vegas / pace context the live board folds in, because that context can’t be faithfully reconstructed later — so these are conservative reads. A small sample of settled days proves nothing either way; the point is transparency, not a win-rate claim. Descriptive research — never predictions, picks, or betting advice. See the methodology for the exact math.