Loading…
Philadelphia 76ersAdem Bona
#30 · F · 6-10 · 235 lb · 34 games
Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2024 · Rd 2, Pick 41
- College
- UCLA
- Country
- Nigeria
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 7.1 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Game-Time DecisionGame-Time DecisionConfirm Adem Bona's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Foot Sprain
Bona suffered a foot sprain this offseason, clouding his ability to participate in camp later this month. It's unclear if his status for Opening Night is in serious doubt, as he does have about a month until the regular season begins. Until Bona is cleared to retake the floor, Dominick Barlow and Ariel Hukporti should handle the backup center reps.
Verdict
vs 7.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 61% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line61supports it
Consistency16argues against it
Projection
6.3 PTS(×0.92 context)
L5 6.6 · L10 7.8 · med 8.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 4.0 · ceil 10.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
55%over
11 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–74%Season34 games
47%over
16 over · 18 under
Medium confidence95% CI 31%–63%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62% | 21/34 | ||
| 62% | 21/34 | ||
| 53% | 18/34 | ||
| 7.5Current | 47% | 16/34 | |
| 35% | 12/34 | ||
| 26% | 9/34 | ||
| 18% | 6/34 |
Situational splits
Over 7.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home44%7/16Medium
Away50%9/18Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)50%2/4Low
1 day30%3/10Low
2 days50%2/4Low
3+ days60%9/15Medium
Last matchup — vs MIL
Apr 12, 2026
24thof 30 in PTS allowed to forwards
MIL allows 13.2 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 170 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Adem Bona has gone over 7.5 PTS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 47% across the full season. MIL has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 24th-most PTS of 30 teams (13.2 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 3.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.