Oklahoma City Thunder

Ajay Mitchell Assists

Stats updated: Apr 8, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Ajay Mitchell has gone over 3.5 AST in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: 2024 · Rd 2, Pick 38
College: California-Santa Barbara
Country: Belgium
Experience: 2 seasons

Line

PrizePicksAssists · season avg 4.1 AST · our line

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Game-Time DecisionConfirm Ajay Mitchell's status before the game.

Injury:: Right Calf Strain

Mitchell (calf) had a breakout campaign in his second NBA season and could earn a larger role in 2026-27 though he'll still have to compete with Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso and Jared McCain for consistent playing time. His continued development as a secondary playmaker could determine whether he becomes a reliable fantasy contributor.

Verdict

vs 3.5 ASTAssists

No readFireFactor 5/100· model 49% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral

Projection vs line49neutral

Consistency11argues against it

Projection

3.6 AST(×0.97 context)

L5 3.2 · L10 3.8 · med 3.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 2.0 · ceil 6.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2020 games

50%over

10 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%

Season34 games

53%over

18 over · 16 under

Medium confidence95% CI 37%–69%

Alternate lines — Assists (AST)

AST over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate AST line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	34/34
	91%	31/34
	76%	26/34
3.5Current	53%	18/34
	35%	12/34
	24%	8/34
	12%	4/34

Last 20 games — AST per game vs. line 3.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 3.5 AST by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%7/14Low

Away55%11/20Medium

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)0%0/1Low

1 day53%9/17Medium

2 days50%4/8Low

3+ days57%4/7Low

Last matchup — vs DET

Mar 30, 2026

27thof 30 in AST allowed to guards

DET allows 3.5 AST per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 236 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Ajay Mitchell has gone over 3.5 AST 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 53% across the full season. DET has been a tough matchup for guards this season, allowing the 27th-most AST of 30 teams (3.5 per game). His game-to-game AST have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.