Minnesota Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards Turnovers

Stats updated: Oct 26, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Anthony Edwards has gone over 3.5 TOV in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: 2020 · Rd 1, Pick 1
College: Georgia
Country: USA
Experience: 7 seasons

Line

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PrizePicksTurnovers · season avg 3.0 TOV · PrizePicks line

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OutAnthony Edwards isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Right Knee Surgery
Est. return:: Dec 21, 2026

Edwards underwent debridement surgery in Minnesota, though the team did not provide a timetable for his return. The star guard is expected to make a full recovery, with additional updates coming as he progresses through rehabilitation. Based on previous reporting from ESPN's Shams Charania, Edwards could miss up to two months. Edwards was off to a scorching start this season, averaging 33.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 2.0 steals across four appearances.

Verdict

vs 3.5 TOVTurnovers

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 38% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)76supports it

Projection vs line53neutral

Consistency12argues against it

Matchup0argues against it

Projection

3.1 TOV(×0.95 context)

L5 3.6 · L10 3.1 · med 3.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 2.0 · ceil 4.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2012 games

42%over

5 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–68%

Season12 games

42%over

5 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–68%

Alternate lines — Turnovers (TOV)

TOV over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TOV line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	92%	11/12
	92%	11/12
	50%	6/12
3.5Current	42%	5/12
	17%	2/12
	8%	1/12
	0%	0/12

Last 12 games — TOV per game vs. line 3.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 3.5 TOV by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%1/3Low

Away44%4/9Low

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)100%1/1Low

1 day33%2/6Low

2 days33%1/3Low

3+ days100%1/1Low

Next matchup — @ HOU

Nov 5, 2026

27thof 30 in TOV allowed to guards

HOU allows 1.3 TOV per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 29 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Anthony Edwards has gone over 3.5 TOV 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 42% across the full season. HOU has been a tough matchup for guards this season, allowing the 27th-most TOV of 30 teams (1.3 per game). His game-to-game TOV have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.

Over oddsOver only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 42%.