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Toronto RaptorsBrandon Ingram
#3 · F · 6-8 · 190 lb · 54 games
Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2016 · Rd 1, Pick 2
- College
- Duke
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 23.9 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutBrandon Ingram isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Achilles Surgery
- Est. return:
- Nov 8, 2026
Ingram appears to be making steady progress after missing the opening run of the 2026-27 season through a partial Achilles tear, although it remains unclear when he'll be an option again for the Clippers and how quickly he'll regain playing time. Having worked with the G League squad Sunday, the versatile man is back with the main team, and his eventual return to action will restore a major piece of the rotation. However, while Ingram remains out, Darius Garland and Kris Dunn look set to carry most of the workload in upcoming contests.
Verdict
vs 23.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 69% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line69supports it
Consistency53neutral
Matchup100supports it
Projection
20.0 PTS(×0.86 context)
L5 21.2 · L10 23.8 · med 20.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 19.0 · ceil 30.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season54 games
50%over
27 over · 27 under
Medium confidence95% CI 37%–63%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61% | 33/54 | ||
| 57% | 31/54 | ||
| 52% | 28/54 | ||
| 23.5Current | 50% | 27/54 | |
| 46% | 25/54 | ||
| 43% | 23/54 | ||
| 37% | 20/54 |
Situational splits
Over 23.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home66%19/29Medium
Away32%8/25Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)22%2/9Low
1 day50%10/20Medium
2 days80%8/10Low
3+ days43%6/14Low
Next matchup — @ LAC
Nov 3, 2026
30thof 30 in PTS allowed to forwards
LAC allows 9.6 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 17 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Brandon Ingram has gone over 23.5 PTS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 50% across the full season. LAC has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 30th-most PTS of 30 teams (9.6 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 6.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.