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Toronto RaptorsBrandon Ingram
#3 · F · 6-8 · 190 lb · 54 games
Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2016 · Rd 1, Pick 2
- College
- Duke
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 23.9 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Game-Time DecisionGame-Time DecisionConfirm Brandon Ingram's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Right Heel Surgery
The deal, which was agreed in principle June 30, was held up over two months due to the league's investigation involving salary-cap circumvention by Leonard and the Clippers. Ingram underwent surgery in early May to address ongoing right heel pain, so his health will be worth monitoring when he reports to Los Angeles training camp later in September.
Verdict
vs 23.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 5/100· model 52% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency53neutral
Projection
23.2 PTS(×0.99 context)
L5 21.2 · L10 23.8 · med 20.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 19.0 · ceil 30.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season54 games
50%over
27 over · 27 under
Medium confidence95% CI 37%–63%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61% | 33/54 | ||
| 57% | 31/54 | ||
| 52% | 28/54 | ||
| 23.5Current | 50% | 27/54 | |
| 46% | 25/54 | ||
| 43% | 23/54 | ||
| 37% | 20/54 |
Situational splits
Over 23.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home66%19/29Medium
Away32%8/25Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)22%2/9Low
1 day50%10/20Medium
2 days80%8/10Low
3+ days43%6/14Low
Last matchup — @ NYK
Apr 10, 2026
21stof 30 in PTS allowed to forwards
NYK allows 13.6 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 172 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Brandon Ingram has gone over 23.5 PTS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 50% across the full season. NYK has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 21st-most PTS of 30 teams (13.6 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 6.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.