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Charlotte HornetsBrandon Miller
#24 · F · 6-7 · 200 lb · 33 games
Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2023 · Rd 1, Pick 2
- College
- Alabama
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 21.2 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Game-Time DecisionGame-Time DecisionConfirm Brandon Miller's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Left Shoulder Surgery
With Miller coming off May surgery to address left shoulder instability, any rehab update is notable as Charlotte prepares for training camp. "It's going good, going good," Miller said. "I'm getting stronger. That's all I can ask for. The stronger I get, the more mobile I am with the shoulder and that is the most important thing." He wasn't ready to commit to a timetable, and he's still awaiting full clearance for basketball activities with training camp a little over a month away.
Verdict
vs 21.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 5/100· model 42% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line42neutral
Consistency48neutral
Projection
18.0 PTS(×0.94 context)
L5 15.8 · L10 17.8 · med 20.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 16.0 · ceil 26.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
40%over
8 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–61%Season33 games
55%over
18 over · 15 under
Medium confidence95% CI 38%–70%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 22/33 | ||
| 67% | 22/33 | ||
| 61% | 20/33 | ||
| 21.5Current | 55% | 18/33 | |
| 45% | 15/33 | ||
| 42% | 14/33 | ||
| 36% | 12/33 |
Situational splits
Over 21.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home65%13/20Medium
Away38%5/13Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/2Low
1 day70%7/10Low
2 days57%4/7Low
3+ days46%6/13Low
Last matchup — vs DET
Apr 10, 2026
7thof 30 in PTS allowed to forwards
DET allows 14.5 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 154 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Brandon Miller has gone over 21.5 PTS 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 55% across the full season. DET has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 7th-most PTS of 30 teams (14.5 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 6.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.