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Dallas MavericksBrandon Williams
#10 · G · 6-1 · 190 lb · 5 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Arizona
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 15.6 PTS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 9.5 PTSPointsBlazing overFireFactor 97/100· model 96% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line95supports it
Consistency64supports it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
15.7 PTS(×0.97 context)
L5 15.6 · L10 15.6 · med 17.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 13.2 · ceil 17.6
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
100%over
5 over · 0 under
Medium confidence95% CI 57%–100%Last 105 games
100%over
5 over · 0 under
Medium confidence95% CI 57%–100%Last 205 games
100%over
5 over · 0 under
Medium confidence95% CI 57%–100%Season5 games
100%over
5 over · 0 under
Medium confidence95% CI 57%–100%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 5/5 | ||
| 100% | 5/5 | ||
| 100% | 5/5 | ||
| 9.5Current | 100% | 5/5 | |
| 80% | 4/5 | ||
| 80% | 4/5 | ||
| 80% | 4/5 |
Situational splits
Over 9.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%2/2Low
Away100%3/3Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%1/1Low
2 days100%1/1Low
3+ days100%2/2Low
Next matchup — vs UTA
Nov 7, 2026
7thof 30 in PTS allowed to guards
UTA allows 13.2 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 28 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 5 games, Brandon Williams has gone over 9.5 PTS 5 of 5 decided times (100%) — versus 100% across the full season. UTA has been a favorable matchup for guards this season, allowing the 7th-most PTS of 30 teams (13.2 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 3.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Line shopping — Points (PTS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (10 PTS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 100%.