Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Deandre Ayton has gone over 32.5 FS in 2 of his last 10 decided games (20%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: 2018 · Rd 1, Pick 1
College: Arizona
Country: Bahamas
Experience: 8 seasons

Line

Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 32.2 FS

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Verdict

vs 32.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 6/100· model 42% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)46neutral

Projection vs line42neutral

Consistency45neutral

Projection

26.9 FS(×0.93 context)

L5 27.9 · L10 26.7 · med 26.1

Consistency

Variable

floor 23.1 · ceil 41.9

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

20%over

2 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%

Last 2020 games

35%over

7 over · 13 under

Medium confidence95% CI 18%–57%

Season45 games

52%over

23 over · 21 under · 1 push

Medium confidence95% CI 38%–66%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	60%	27/45
	60%	27/45
	57%	25/44
32.5Current	52%	23/44
	49%	22/45
	43%	19/44
	40%	18/45

Last 20 games — FS per game vs. line 32.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 32.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home59%13/22Medium

Away45%10/22Medium

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)38%3/8Low

1 day44%7/16Medium

2 days60%3/5Low

3+ days71%10/14Medium

Last matchup — vs PHX

Apr 10, 2026

26thof 30 in FS allowed to centers

PHX allows 28.7 FS per game to centers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 63 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Deandre Ayton has gone over 32.5 FS 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 52% across the full season. PHX has been a tough matchup for centers this season, allowing the 26th-most FS of 30 teams (28.7 per game). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 10.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 52%.