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LA ClippersDerrick Jones Jr.
#5 · F · 6-6 · 210 lb · 29 games
Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- UNLV
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 11.7 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 12.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 15/100· model 63% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it
Projection vs line63supports it
Consistency24argues against it
Projection
10.1 PTS(×0.96 context)
L5 9.0 · L10 9.5 · med 10.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 6.0 · ceil 16.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season29 games
45%over
13 over · 16 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–62%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72% | 21/29 | ||
| 69% | 20/29 | ||
| 62% | 18/29 | ||
| 12.5Current | 45% | 13/29 | |
| 34% | 10/29 | ||
| 34% | 10/29 | ||
| 28% | 8/29 |
Situational splits
Over 12.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home38%6/16Medium
Away54%7/13Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)67%4/6Low
1 day27%3/11Low
2 days33%1/3Low
3+ days50%4/8Low
Last matchup — vs OKC
Apr 8, 2026
30thof 30 in PTS allowed to forwards
OKC allows 12.7 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 174 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Derrick Jones Jr. has gone over 12.5 PTS 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 45% across the full season. OKC has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 30th-most PTS of 30 teams (12.7 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 5.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 45%.